Recession Vs CongressMan

Congressman, and many citizens argued the rescue of banks and have gone too far to use the whip in hand by talking rules. Here is one more good article. I guess every one agrees Save 100 by killing one. Wallstreet proved save few sinners to save Nation from economic crises. Whatever things are intrinsically not so simple to filter good vs bad considering there impact. And most time they seem worth to sue for their actions

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/18/business/18nocera.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&em

Stimulus Vs Economy

I was among the group who was against the type of stimulus presented this year 2009. The basic perception behind the stimulus was like more money given to people will stimulate the economy. I am surprised how government banked its policies to work by giving around 10 bucks more biweekly and spending on projects that were shelved for years.

One thing I supported right from the beginning was saving banks and infrastructure. I wish institutions like bear sterns, wamu, etc should have been saved. They were true white collar employment boosters which had well respected face in America for generations. When it comes to auto, newspaper, airlines, retail, it depends on the choice for saving because of their individual impacts on the economy, and main of all financials are the back bone for anything.  Newspaper are going under technology transformation process, airlines I am not really sure what they need, I believe this industry needs more regulation to be saved.

I believe giving away money for saving businesses than going against them for their wrong practices would have done good. Later at right times those liable business could have been accounted for their practices. Now at this brink of moment their are doubts of double dip recession; but I dont agree this is feasible in near future because of strong big banks. only doubt that leaves me is inspite of 30% evaporation in home values how are still big banks alive, may be answer to this can never be found.  

Recession & Great Depression

Recession : Officially recognized if GDP falls for 2 consecutive quarters
Depression: Recognized if GDP falls more than 10 percent.

Key points of 1929 depression: started with first world war, lasted for a decade, unemployment surged to 25% from 3.5%, stock market crashed 87%,banks had significant role, money distributed to Germany, ended with second world war;

Just wanted to document the events during Recession 2007.
Started with Real estate boom between 2004-2007;
Oil prices topped to 147$ a barrel;  Early 2008 - Aug 2008
financial giants Bern Steins, AIG, Wachovia, Washington mutual, got lost etc, March 2008 - Sept 2008
stock market crashed 55%;  May 2007 - March 2009
airlines went almost bankrupt even after oil came down to 35$ a barrel;  Nov 2008
Retail giants like circuit city, filed bankruptcy  Feb 2009
Auto giants like GM, Chrysler, Ford near bankruptcy   Oct 2008 - May 2009
Newspaper industry on verge of collapse
Unemployment current peaked 8.9%  May 2009
Govt Deficit 3.5$ B surpassed that of Great Depression
Till date 22+35 banks failed for this recession


Predictions as of now
Unemployment to peak near to 10% by end of 2009
Inflation to start climbing from year 2012

I am not sure, did bailing out of companies actually avoided another Great Depression or essentially stretched recession longer.
I only wish much of the worse is behind, and may be Obama might be compared with Roosevelt who bailed out Country from great depression.

 
note -- I am not an economist, these are just my thoughts derived from different analysts

Timothy Geither -- Stress Test

Holy Cow, I can't believe Stress Test results are due in early May 09. How bullshit it sounds when Beigebook results said that the economy has bottomed out in March 09. Well all major 19 financial institutions survived. What difference does it make when they have survived the worst. I believe the results will do more harm than good. It might result in shareholders running after the company that survived the worst. Report might make it go worse. I would vote for report being maintained confindential.

what went wrong

nice article : things would have been different.
Everyone says, this went wrong, this is not the right this to do.
Less i have heard what the right thing to do, and people who raised this were severely opposed because its democratic country.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/25/business/economy/25view.html?_r=1&ref=business

Peter Schiff -- hope his prediction is wrong

Peter Schiff predictions proved right so far. Hope his scary predictions are not true for future.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9087euswWo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVlk988bzMU&NR=1

Worlds Most Powerful Person Great Obama Day

Nearly 2 million people (near 1% countries total population) near white house standing shivering in severe cold. Great day, Great  Person, for this Great country. On history will have a chance to witness if this great person is good enough to face Greatest challenges ahead like Economic Recession, Immigration issues,  Healthcare, etc.

Bank of America countries largest bank by assets is a mere 5$ stock with dow plunging 350 points on this great Obama day. Will  countries major banks survive or nationalized is a million dollar question. My personal view Hank Paulson actively did the very best, now future actions should clearly demarcate the actions by Hank Paulson as good /bad.