Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Recession & Great Depression


Recession : Officially recognized if GDP falls for 2 consecutive quarters
Depression: Recognized if GDP falls more than 10 percent.

Key points of 1929 depression: started with first world war, lasted for a decade, unemployment surged to 25% from 3.5%, stock market crashed 87%,banks had significant role, money distributed to Germany, ended with second world war;

Just wanted to document the events during Recession 2007.
Started with Real estate boom between 2004-2007;
Oil prices topped to 147$ a barrel;  Early 2008 - Aug 2008
financial giants Bern Steins, AIG, Wachovia, Washington mutual, got lost etc, March 2008 - Sept 2008
stock market crashed 55%;  May 2007 - March 2009
airlines went almost bankrupt even after oil came down to 35$ a barrel;  Nov 2008
Retail giants like circuit city, filed bankruptcy  Feb 2009
Auto giants like GM, Chrysler, Ford near bankruptcy   Oct 2008 - May 2009
Newspaper industry on verge of collapse
Unemployment current peaked 8.9%  May 2009
Govt Deficit 3.5$ B surpassed that of Great Depression
Till date 22+35 banks failed for this recession


Predictions as of now
Unemployment to peak near to 10% by end of 2009
Inflation to start climbing from year 2012

I am not sure, did bailing out of companies actually avoided another Great Depression or essentially stretched recession longer.
I only wish much of the worse is behind, and may be Obama might be compared with Roosevelt who bailed out Country from great depression.

 
note -- I am not an economist, these are just my thoughts derived from different analysts